Free LanceThere are many signs that silly season is well and truly upon us. Newspapers without any news (except FO Week, of course). Politicians on holiday. Endless speculation about the forthcoming football season while spending days slumped in front of the cricket. But nothing indicates that the dog days of summer have set in more clearly than economists and strategists at investment banks releasing wholly spurious research because they have nothing better to do. So please let me be the first to introduce to you Rabobank's fascinating 'calculation' that there is a one in ten chance of a Chinese Tour de France winner by 2050. Oddly enough, when I called one of my bookies with that punt he hung up on me (it was either the bizarre nature of the bet or the outstanding bill, and who am I to speculate...