Czarnikow, the world's largest sugar merchant, has today (February 16) raised its forecast for a global sugar deficit for the 2009/2010 growing season.
The firm has revised its production estimates for the year to 152.8m metric tons by raw value (mtrv), giving a projected shortfall of 14.8m mtrv. That figure is just short of 2009’s revised deficit figure of 15.6m mtrv.
The research paper raised strong concerns about supply levels from large producer nations. It suggested Indian production estimates of 19.94m mtrv now looked optimistic, citing lower than expected planting levels and a repeat of last year’s poor monsoon season, when rainfall was reportedly 30% lower than usual.
India uses a state run system of stockpiling, combined with a periodic release mechanism, to control prices. But the system came under severe strain in 2009 as the monsoons meant domestic production was...