Crude oil has been unable to break forcefully above $80, despite a rally in recent weeks, and could fall back later this week towards $77 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, according to research published yesterday by the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange.
The research, written by CPM Group, argues that high US inventories, profit-taking and tepid investor sentiment will weigh on the price. Supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico due to tropical storms may push the price above $80 or even $82 this week, but the gain may be short-lived.
The most important background for commodities is the economic outlook in developed countries, as demand in developing nations remains strong. As the forecast for Europe and Japan has brightened, offsetting...