The latest weekly summary of FOWi is now available - please click link at end of the article to download the pdf.
FOWi editorial comment:
The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry, seems to be about the best way to sum up the rollercoaster that has been 2011. If there was even the slightest chance of an upset, the gremlins took full advantage.
The script at the start of the year had some solid predictions about things like exchange mergers that made complete business sense and yet they didn’t quite make it to the end. The attempted LSE/TMX merger was a case in point and the current Maple bid is struggling.
We’re still seeing a splendid battle over vertical silos that will rumble on and I suspect will still be kicking around in 20 years’ time.
The US had a sustained drought so the logic went that the farmers couldn’t possibly turn it around. Then that’s exactly what they did.Trading has got faster and gained more places to trade but if you want to point to a success story, the London Metal Exchange – home of open outcry - would be a good place to start.
The industry has taken a series of batterings this year in the full public gaze and yet time and time again a serious meltdown has been avoided.
Let’s look at the upside here. We’ve still got plenty of choice in where and how to do business. The established venues are not under threat and there are new opportunities to go find. The regulators have backed off. Given what’s happened this year, things could be a lot worse.
Next year? Smaller exchanges are banding together to give the big names a decent race aided by the long march of technology.
The regulators will have to do some serious work if we are to avoid gridlock but there is a determination to get the job done. We’ve seen some of the big names reduce their presence in the sector and that is going to continue.
The BRIC group has enjoyed another strong year of derivatives trading, but their regional rivals are ready to catch them up.
Next year is certainly going to be interesting. In the meantime, there is Christmas to look forward to.
So with that, the team here at FOWi would like to wish all of our readers a wonderful Christmas and a prosperous New Year.
Chris Smith
FOW Intelligence
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